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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTech stocks still attractive in long term, UBS Wealth Management CIO saysMark Haefele, CIO at UBS Global Wealth Management, discusses the outlook for the U.S. economy and markets.
Persons: Mark Haefele Organizations: Tech, UBS Wealth Management, UBS Global Wealth Management Locations: U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGoldilocks scenario is coming through thanks to AI and strong U.S. economy, says Mark HaefeleMark Haefele, Chief Investment Officer of UBS Global Wealth Management, discusses earnings, the S&P 500, and the stock market rally.
Persons: Mark Haefele Mark Haefele Organizations: UBS Global Wealth Management
While the S & P 500 has more doubled since hitting its pandemic low in March 2020, UBS thinks stock values are "well supported" and that the benchmark could exceed its original forecast for 2024. UBS global wealth management chief Mark Haefele said things were lining up for the S & P 500 to make a run toward 5,300 this year, about 6% upside from current levels. Haefele's base case for 2024 was a gain to around 5,000, but the S & P 500 has already reached that point in a hurry, up 5% year-to-date. "In this event, we believe the S & P 500 has the potential to rise to around 5,300 this year." The benchmark is on pace for five-straight positive weeks as tech shares rally and companies report higher fourth-quarter earnings than expected.
Persons: Mark Haefele, Haefele Organizations: UBS, Labor Department Locations: Thursday's
Online banks, which have offered some of the richest annual percentage yields on savings products, are slashing the interest they pay. Though the 1-year Treasury bill is yielding about 4.78%, select institutions will offer upward of 5% to hold your cash in a 1-year CD. "We believe banks are repositioning their CD rates ahead of potential Fed rate cuts in 2024," said analyst Michael Kaye in a report on Friday. See below for a table of where online banks now stand on 1-year CD rates. Wells Fargo scanned the online banks under its coverage and found the average APY for a 1-year CD was 0.64% in March 2022.
Persons: Wells Fargo, Michael Kaye, Mark Haefele, Cash Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, CME Group, Synchrony, UBS Locations: Wells
The S&P 500 is down 7% since the start of September and briefly entered correction territory from its summer high last week. However, strategists say these threats are mostly priced into stocks, but higher earnings aren't. After three straight quarters of contracting profits, both BofA and UBS expect earnings to grow at least 3% year-over-year in Q3. "Within the context of our expectations for a continued choppy backdrop, we are incrementally more positive," Lerner wrote in a late October note. Truist's more constructive view on equities is based on strong results so far in Q3, Lerner wrote.
Persons: Oppenheimer, Savita Subramanian, Marcelli, David Lefkowitz, Lefkowitz, John Stoltzfus, Stoltzfus, Keith Lerner, Lerner, it's, Truist, Mark Haefele Organizations: Bank of America, UBS, Bank of America's, Equity, UBS Global Wealth Management, Federal Reserve, Israel, Oppenheimer Asset Management Locations: Israel, Ukraine, Truist, Real, Charlotte
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailUBS Global CIO: This is the great time for people to get their portfolios more in balanceMark Haefele, Global CIO of UBS Wealth Management, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss whether the 10-year yield will test the 4.8% yield level, if he sees a downside scenario coming for the benchmark 10-year treasury yield, and more.
Persons: Mark Haefele Organizations: UBS Global, Global, UBS Wealth Management
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 11, 2023. ET is expected to show the producer price index for final demand increased 0.3% last month after a 0.7% rise in August, ahead of Thursday's closely watched consumer inflation data. Yields on government bonds have eased from their multi-year highs on dovish remarks from Fed officials earlier this week. Central bank officials such as Fed Governor Christopher Waller, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Boston Fed President Susan Collins are also scheduled to speak on Wednesday. Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) lost 1.7% as the oil and gas producer is set to buy shale producer Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD.N) in an all-stock deal valued at $59.5 billion.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Fed's Bowman, Michelle Bowman, Christopher Waller, Raphael Bostic, Susan Collins, Mark Haefele, Birkenstock, Tim Wentworth, Piper Sandler, Drugmaker Eli Lilly, LLY.N, Novo, Shashwat Chauhan, Ankika Biswas, Arun Koyyur, Shounak Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Companies, Fed's Bowman Exxon, Futures, Dow, Nasdaq, Treasury, Federal, Labor Department, Atlanta Fed, Boston Fed, UBS Global Wealth Management, Traders, Microsoft, Nvidia, Palestinian, Hamas, Dow e, Walgreens Boots Alliance, Arista Networks, Exxon Mobil, Natural Resources, Novo Nordisk's, Baxter International, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Gaza, Thursday's, Middle East, Israel, Bengaluru
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 26, 2023. While the 30-year Treasury yield crossed above 5% for the first time since August 2007, the 10-year and five-year yields hit their highest since 2007. The CBOE volatility index (.VIX), Wall Street's "fear gauge", briefly hit a five-month high and topped its long-term average of 20. A day after U.S. job openings unexpectedly rose in August, investors will closely monitor September ADP National Employment data at 8:15 a.m. Reporting by Ankika Biswas and Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak DasguptaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Kevin McCarthy, Mark Haefele, Haefele, Austan Goolsbee, Michelle Bowman, Eli Lilly, LLY.N, Mike Mason, Ankika Biswas, Shashwat Chauhan, Shounak Dasgupta Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Apple, U.S . House Republicans, Treasury, Microsoft, Nvidia, Dow e, Nasdaq, Federal, UBS Global Wealth, Institute, Supply, PMI, Chicago, Traders, Dow, Intel, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Bengaluru
By contrast, both funds received their highest monthly net inflows of 2023 in June, gaining $265.5 million and $29.74 million, respectively, according to Lipper data. But AI stocks have suffered along with broader markets in recent weeks, as Treasury yields hovering around 16-year highs dull investors' risk appetite. Retail investor flows into the sector have also cooled as the initial fervor surrounding AI wanes. September saw the lowest net monthly retail flows of $1.96 billion into AI-linked stocks since April, according to Vanda Research. "It is possible this negative sentiment could reverse again in Q4, particularly if large cap tech stocks like Nvidia held in AI-themed tech ETFs continue to show strong earnings growth," CFRA's Ullal added.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Aniket, Mark Haefele, Bansari Mayur, Ira Iosebashvili, Mark Potter Organizations: REUTERS, Robotics, Intelligence, Global Robotics, Automation, CFRA Research, Vanda Research, Global, Nvidia, UBS Global Wealth Management, Thomson, & $ Locations: Bengaluru
NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementAdvertisementTech stocks have struggled over the past two months – the mini-slump is a buying opportunity, according to UBS. "Tech stocks have remained under pressure in September, with rising yields and mixed results weighing on performance," a team led by CIO Mark Haefele wrote in a research note. "But, we believe the recent weakness provides a good opportunity to add exposure to artificial intelligence (AI) leaders." UBS's view is that the rollout of new AI products will give tech stocks a much-needed boost as investors gauge how listed companies will monetize the field.
Persons: that's, , Mark Haefele Organizations: UBS, Nasdaq, Service, Tech, Federal Reserve Locations: Swiss
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., August 15, 2023. "While the dot plots suggest upside risks to interest rates, we retain our expectations that the hike cycle is likely done and for the Fed not to raise rates again," Mark Haefele Chief Investment Officer, UBS Global Wealth Management, said in a note. Meanwhile, weak performance of recent listings after their debut highs has dampened hopes of a likely revival in the initial public offering market amid high interest rates and broader market declines. Arm Holdings also fell 3.0% to $51.3 premarket, nearing its IPO price of $51 per share while Instacart (CART.O) lost 1.4%. ET, Dow e-minis were down 188 points, or 0.54%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 34.75 points, or 0.78%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 160.75 points, or 1.06%.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mark, Ankika Biswas, Shristi, Arun Koyyur, Vinay Dwivedi Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, FedEx, Broadcom, Google, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Apple, Nvidia, Wall, UBS Global Wealth Management, Arm Holdings, Dow e, Marvell Technology, Marvell, Warner Bros Discovery, Paramount Global, Writers Guild of America, WGA, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Bengaluru
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHaefele: For the S&P 500 to rally, the mega-cap stocks can't pull backMark Haefele, UBS Global Wealth Management CIO, discusses where to invest in the markets and the outlook for the economy.
Persons: Mark Haefele Organizations: UBS Global Wealth Management
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., August 15, 2023. The Consumer Price Index reading for August is due on Sept. 13, while the Federal Reserve's policy decision is scheduled for Sept. 20. New York Fed President John Williams kept his options open over future interest rate policy and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said while it "could be appropriate" to skip a rate hike in the upcoming meeting, more policy tightening might be needed. DocuSign (DOCU.O) added 3.1% as the e-Signature product provider beat second-quarter results estimates and raised its annual revenue forecast. GameStop (GME.N) fell 2.3% on a report that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission was investigating the videogame retailer's chairman, Ryan Cohen.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mark Haefele, Morgan Stanley, John Williams, Lorie Logan, Mary Daly, Ryan Cohen, Shristi Achar, Arun Koyyur, Vinay Dwivedi Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Mizuho, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, UBS Global Wealth Management, Traders, FedWatch, Apple, Wall, Dow e, . New York Fed, Dallas Fed, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, GameStop, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Beijing, China, Bengaluru
UBS is sticking by its view of a "softish" landing for the U.S. economy, saying inflation is moving closer to the Federal Reserve's target without a recession this year. "August was a tough month for investors," said Mark Haefele, global wealth management chief investment officer at UBS, noting that the S&P 500 ended last month down 1.6%. Last month's increase in core PCE came out well above the Fed's target, which could sustain the possibility of another rate hike, the analyst said. UBS is also watching for a potential rebound in savings rates and further cooling in the labor market. We expect US Treasury yields to fall by year-end as both US economic growth and inflation moderate," Haefele wrote.
Persons: Mark Haefele, Haefele, — Pia Singh Organizations: UBS, Fed Locations: U.S
People are seen on Wall Street outside the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., March 19, 2021. Focus now shifts to a report on the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, which is set to be released on Thursday and the non-farm payrolls data due on Friday. ET, Dow e-minis were up 74 points, or 0.22%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 6.5 points, or 0.15%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 41.5 points, or 0.28%. Horizon Therapeutics' shares rose 5.2%. Reporting by Shristi Achar A and Amruta Khandekar in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak DasguptaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Stocks, Jerome Powell, Mark Haefele, Powell's Jackson, Shristi Achar, Shounak Dasgupta Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow, Nasdaq, Fed, UBS Global Wealth Management, U.S, PDD Holdings, Baidu, Dow e, U.S . Federal Trade Commission, Horizon Therapeutics, Therapeutics, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, China, Xpeng, Bengaluru
The logo of technology company Nvidia is seen at its headquarters in Santa Clara, California February 11, 2015. Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 172 points, or 1.13% and S&P 500 e-minis were up 21.75 points, or 0.49% at 5:28 a.m. "It is clear...that AI demand is still outstripping supply," Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, said in a note. "Within the tech sector, we think software and internet stocks are best positioned to ride the next wave of the technology cycle and the broadening of AI demand." Splunk Inc (SPLK.O) gained 13.9% after the data analytics software maker forecast third-quarter revenue above market estimates on expectations of AI-related spending.
Persons: Robert Galbraith, Mark Haefele, Jerome Powell, Amruta Khandekar, Shreyashi Sanyal, Savio D'Souza, Shinjini Organizations: Nvidia, REUTERS, Dow, Nasdaq, UBS Global Wealth Management, Microsoft, Palantir Technologies, Micro Devices, Marvell Technology, Semiconductor, Europe's ASM, BE Semiconductor, ASML, Investors, Federal Reserve, U.S, Treasury, Boeing, Splunk Inc, Thomson Locations: Santa Clara , California, United States, Jackson, U.S, Bengaluru
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailA 'soft-ish' landing is still possible for the U.S. but there are many issues, UBS CIO saysMark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, discusses the outlook for the U.S. economy.
Persons: Mark Haefele Organizations: UBS, UBS Global Wealth Management Locations: U.S
The central bank will need to see more "signs that labor market conditions are loosening," governor Michelle Bowman said Saturday. But governor Michelle Bowman pushed back on Saturday, saying that additional hikes would probably be needed to bring inflation in line with the central bank's 2% target. Bowman flagged the labor market the same week a fresh batch of jobs data signaled the Fed might have more work to do to stop another flare-up in prices. "The recent jobs data is more or less in agreement with anecdotal evidence that a softening in the labor market is underway," UBS Global Wealth Management CIO Mark Haefele said in a note to clients Monday. "But elements of resilience in the jobs market mean that investors cannot yet take an end to rate hikes for granted," he added.
Persons: Michelle Bowman, Jerome Powell, Powell, Mark Haefele Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Kansas Bankers Association, Bowman, UBS Global Wealth Management Locations: Wall, Silicon
Fitch's downgrade of the US government's credit score on Tuesday has come as a shock to markets. Here's how 8 top voices have reacted, including Jamie Dimon, Warren Buffett and Larry Summers. But the decision of a credit rating agency today, as the economy looks stronger than expected, to downgrade the United States is bizarre and inept," Summers said in a post on X. Fitch rating services down grades US credit rating from AAA to AA+. I strongly disagree with Fitch's decision, and I believe it is entirely unwarranted," Yellen said.
Persons: Jamie Dimon, Warren Buffett, Larry Summers, Fitch, Berkshire Hathaway, Treasurys, Buffett, Dimon, Jeenah, Summers, Mohamed El, Erian, Paul Krugman, Krugman, Robert Kiyosaki, Rich Dad, Brace, Janet Yellen, Patrick Semansky, Yellen, Mark Haefele, Haefele Organizations: AAA, Service, Biden, Wall, Berkshire, CNBC, JPMorgan, Allianz, Fitch, AA, Fed, Treasury, AP, UBS Global Wealth Management Locations: Wall, Silicon, U.S, United States, States
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 20, 2023. Chart shows that the U.S.'s long-term foreign currency rating was downgraded by Fitch to AA+ in 2023, following a similar move from S&P in 2011. ET, Dow e-minis were down 104 points, or 0.29%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 24 points, or 0.52%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 132.25 points, or 0.84%. Among other early movers, Starbucks (SBUX.O) eased 1.9% after the world's largest coffeehouse chain missed market expectations for quarterly comparable sales. Reporting by Johann M Cherian and Bansari Mayur Kamdar in Bengaluru; Editing by Saumyadeb ChakrabartyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Fitch, Mark Haefele, Wells Fargo, Johann M Cherian, Saumyadeb Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow, Nasdaq, Wall, AAA, Standard, UBS Global Wealth Management, Fitch, AA, Dow e, Nvidia, Microsoft, Devices, U.S, Caterpillar, CVS Health Corp, DuPont de Nemours, Investors, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, States, Wells, Bengaluru
Microsoft is set to shed about $100 billion from its market capitalization if the loses hold until close of trading. "The tech earnings season has started on a mixed note," said Mark Haefele, global wealth management chief investment officer at UBS in a client note. "The tone set by quarterly results over the next week will be crucial to the performance of tech stocks through the rest of the third quarter." Large tech companies, which rely heavily on borrowed money, have been pressured since the Fed started its tightening cycle to tame inflation. However, optimism over AI and hopes that the Fed is nearing the end of its rate hiking cycle have supported tech stocks in recent months.
Persons: Lucy Nicholson, Paul Nolte, Murphy, Sylvest, Mark Haefele, Wall, Stuart Cole, Bernstein, Mark Shmulik, Meta, enviously, Shmulik, Shreyashi Sanyal, Amruta, Lucy Raitano, Johann M Cherian, Amanda Cooper, Saumyadeb Organizations: Los Angeles , California U.S, REUTERS, Microsoft, Google, UBS, Apple Inc, Amazon.com Inc, Fed, Equiti, Federal Trade Commission, Amazon, Inc, Facebook, Thomson Locations: Los Angeles , California, U.S, HK, Bengaluru, London
The Politburo acknowledged a stimulus package would be needed to deal with "new difficulties and challenges". Beijing's top decision-making body the Politburo said late Monday that it would launch its stimulus package "with precision and force" to boost demand, according to Xinhua. The country's economy has also been plagued by a property-market crisis ever since embattled developer Evergrande missed its scheduled debt repayments in 2021. The Politburo had been expected to conclude its July meeting later this week, so Monday's hints of a stimulus package surprised markets. "Though few concrete details were revealed and the language falls short of bazooka-style stimulus measures, we think the tone taken is positive," he added.
Persons: Xi Jinping, Evergrande, Mark Haefele Organizations: Service, Xinhua, CSI, UBS Global Wealth Management Locations: Wall, Silicon, Shanghai, Beijing
China's top decision-making body, the Politburo, is set to meet to discuss the economy Friday. The country's growth has stagnated in recent months, while youth unemployment has soared. The Politburo, which is Beijing's top decision-making body, is set to meet at the end of what could be a make-or-break week for markets. That's become a crucial concern for China in recent weeks, with growth stagnating, youth unemployment soaring, and the country teetering on the brink of deflation. Chinese stocks have struggled in 2023 amid signs the country's economy is faltering after nearly three years of harsh zero-COVID lockdowns.
Persons: That's, Evergrande, Xi Jinping, Mark Haefele, we've Organizations: Service, UBS Global Wealth Management, CSI Locations: Beijing, Wall, Silicon, mull, China, Shanghai
U.S. stocks have made big gains this year, but the performance across global stocks has been uneven so far. So where will global stocks go in the second half of the year? Five of the strategists polled expect global markets to fall, while another five say the stocks will beat their U.S. counterparts. Global market bulls Those who expect global stocks to beat the U.S. are most bullish on the U.K., Europe and Japan. Global market bears Andreas Bruckner, European equity strategist at BofA Global Research, predicts that Europe's Stoxx 600 will end the year at 390 — a nearly 15% decline from Monday's close.
Persons: Christian Abuide, Karim Chedid, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, Andreas Bruckner, Mark Haefele, Bruckner, Roger Lee, Lee, Haefele, Carrier Organizations: CNBC Pro, U.S, Lombard, iShares, BofA Global Research, UBS Global Wealth, Nasdaq, UBS, RBC Wealth Management Locations: Japan, China, U.S, Europe
It's official: China's economy is faltering
  + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
Its economy grew 6.3% over the second quarter, falling short of forecasters' expectations. Retail sales growth slowed to 3.1% in June, down from 12.7% the previous month. Beijing finally lifted its harsh zero-COVID restrictions at the end of 2022, sparking hopes of a rapid recovery for the world's second-largest economy. "The pandemic hangover is plaguing China's recovery, Moody's Analytics economist Harry Murphy Cruise said in a research note. China's ruling Politburo is set to meet later this month, and economists expect it to discuss potentially bringing in a stimulus package to boost the country's sputtering growth.
Persons: China's, China –, Harry Murphy Cruise, Mark Haefele Organizations: Service, Privacy, China, Beijing, National Bureau of Statistics, Reuters, CSI, Shanghai, People's Bank of Locations: China, Wall, Silicon, Beijing, People's Bank of China
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